• With a moneyline wager you’re betting only on which team will win. A wager is successful as long you pick the winning team, regardless of whether the team wins by one point or 20. Here’s an example of a.
• The skill in betting the money line in college football is to try and avoid pitfalls when backing the favorites and to zero in on upsets to cash in on spots where you believe the underdog will rise up. Because the majority of spreads end up being double-digits at this level, money lines for favorites are often very high.

In sports betting, a moneyline bet is a wager on which team will win a game. Moneylines are the primary wagering option for hockey and baseball, while for basketball and football they are viewed as a secondary alternative to the point spread.

Have you ever heard of moneyline betting? It’s an American term that’s traditionally associated with betting on the major US sports. These wagers are available in other parts of the world too, but they’re typically referred to as win bets. The same principle applies though. When you correctly select which team will win a match, you’ll get paid out at the relevant odds.

We explain how moneyline betting works in a little more detail below. There’s no need to feel overwhelmed, since they’re relatively straightforward. As a result, the strategies for betting moneylines are also rather straightforward. Nonetheless, we provide some useful advice for how to use them effectively.

A moneyline is a type of straight wager where the bettor wagers simply on who will win the contest, straight up – without any spread involved. The easiest way to think of moneyline betting odds is that you are only betting. What Does Moneyline Mean in Betting? A moneyline bet is one of the easiest kinds of bets you can make at a sportsbook. Simply put, it means betting on a specific team to win a game.

Moneylines Explained

For the most part, moneylines are used when there are two possible outcomes. For example, if you’re placing a moneyline wager on a basketball game, then you’ll essentially be betting on which of the two competing teams will win. Your two choices will be to either back the favorite or to back the underdog.

For example, let’s say there’s an upcoming basketball game between the Boston Celtics and the Memphis Grizzlies. A bookmaker might offer the following point spread on the game.

Betting The Moneyline In Football Predictions

If you understand point spread betting, then it will be obvious that the Celtics are the favorites here. For the purposes of a point spread bet, the bookmaker would remove 5.5 points from their total at the end of the game. If you chose to back them, you’d need them to win by six points or more in order to win your point spread wager.

The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are the underdogs. For the purposes of the point spread bet, the bookmaker would add 5.5 points to their total at the end of the game. If you chose to back them, you’d need them to win or lose by less than six points.

The point spread is basically used to create a 50/50 betting proposition. In this example, the Celtics are theoretically just as likely to win by six points or more as the Grizzlies are to lose by less than six points. This is reflected in the odds, which are typically -110 on both sides of the wager. You have to risk $110 for the chance of winning $100.

If a bookmaker offers moneyline betting on the same game, then their market might look similar to this one.

The bets here are no longer a 50/50 proposition. A bet on the Celtics means you have to risk $240 for the chance of winning $100. The odds are lower because you only need the Celtics to win. Since it doesn’t matter how many points they win by, the chances of this happening are obviously higher.

A bet on the Grizzlies means potentially winning $210 for every $100 staked, which is obviously a better return on your money. However, the Grizzlies would need to win the game outright for such a wager to be successful. The chances of this happening are pretty low.

With a negative moneyline, the odds show how much stake is needed to win $100. With a positive moneyline, the odds show how much a $100 stake will pay in winnings. When betting in non-$100 increments, you’ll have to do all of these calculations on your own.

Calculating Moneyline Payouts

We’ve written a whole article on how to calculate moneyline payouts. Anyone interested in learning more about all the formulas and configurations involved should definitely check this article out. Otherwise, you could just follow this quick trick.

Betting The Money Line In Football

When betting on the favorite, simply divide the negative moneyline by 100 to get a decimal. If you were planning to bet on the Celtics in the above example, this would give you 2.40 (ignore the negative). Now all you have to do is divide your stake by that number in order to see what your potential payouts would be. Let’s say you wanted to stake $650. When you divide that number by 2.40, you’d see that your potential payout is $270.83.

When betting on the underdog, the first step is the same. Divide the positive moneyline by 100, which in the case of the Grizzlies in the above example would give you 2.10. Then, multiply your stake by that number to get your potential winnings. $450 multiplied by 2.10 is $945. Essentially, this means if you risked $450 on the Grizzlies, you would stand to win $945.

Finding Value in Moneylines

All moneylines have what is referred to as an implied probability. This is really just a fancy term pertaining to how often a wager needs to win in order to breakeven, but it’s something you need to understand in order to make a profit from betting moneylines.

Calculating implied probability is relatively straightforward, as long as you use the following formula.

Risk is the initial amount staked on a wager, while return is the initial amount staked plus the potential win.

Betting The Moneyline In Football Standings

Let’s use this formula to calculate the implied probability of the Celtics winning their game against the Grizzlies. We know the odds are -240, which means we’d have to risk $240 for a total potential return of $340 (the initial stake plus the $100 winnings). So the calculation here is $240 divided by $340. This gives us an implied probability of 0.7059.

Technically, probability should always be a number between 0 and 1. It’s often expressed as a percentage though, which makes things easier for the purposes of betting. 0.7059 converted into a percentage (i.e. multiplied by 100) gives us 70.59%. What this means is that the odds suggest the Celtics have a 70.59% chance of winning. If we believe the Celtics have an even greater chance of winning, then we should back them at odds of -240.

This is basically what finding value is all about. When we think that a wager is more likely to win than the odds suggest, we should place that wager. As long as we’re estimating those chances accurately, we should have no problem making an overall profit.

It’s important to note that finding value isn’t necessarily about betting on what we think will happen. If we applied the above calculations to the Grizzlies at odds of +210, we’d get an implied probability of 32.36%. Backing them would be a wise decision if we believe their chances of winning are higher than 32.36%.

After conducting some research, we gave them a 40% chance of winning. Even though this means we actually think their chances of losing are higher than their chances of winning, we should still back them. We’d be placing a wager with positive expected value, which should be everyone’s goal when betting on sports.

Removing Vig & Shopping Moneylines

Earlier, we explained how the implied probability of -240 is 70.59% and how the implied probability of +210 is 32.36%. Notice these two probabilities total 102.95%. The extra 2.95% is the bookmaker’s advantage. It’s called vig, and it’s basically a commission that they charge customers for placing wagers. By removing the vig, you can see what the fair odds on the game would be.

If the odds are the Celtics at -240 and the Grizzlies +210, what is the fair price without vig? Many assume that because there’s a 30 cents gap between the two lines, we just deduct 15 cents from the favorite and add 15 cents to the underdog. This would give us a fair price of -225 for the Celtics and +225 for Grizzlies, which is incorrect.

To remove vig correctly, we need to divide the total of the two implied probabilities by each individual probability. So, in this case, we need to do the following calculations.

70.59% / 102.95% = 68.57%

32.36% / 102.95% = 31.43%

The two results above are the no-vig probabilities. If you’re sharp, you’ll notice that adding 68.57% and 31.43% up together will give you 100%. The extra 2.95% has been removed, so there’s no more vig. We can now go to our odds converter and enter 68.57% into the implied probability field. This will give us moneyline odds of -218. If we enter 31.43%, we’ll get moneyline odds of +218. The original moneyline market of the Celtics at -240 and the Grizzlies at +210 therefore has no-vig odds of the Celtics at -218 and the Grizzlies at +218.

We explain removing vig, and how this process helps us, in more detail in our article on handicapping the market.

Armed with the knowledge of how to remove vig, it’s now possible to prevent yourself from making the same mistakes that the majority of bettors make. Most bettors understand the importance of line shopping (i.e. comparing the lines and odds at different bookmakers and betting sites). However, if they fail to also understand how moneylines and vig work, then they’re probably going to make wagers where they think there’s positive expected value (+EV), even though there’s not.

For example, imagine a game where the odds were -550 for the favorite and +450 for the underdog. A bettor shopping around for lines might be delighted to see the same favorite offered at -490 and enthusiastically back the team at those odds simply because those are the best odds available. However, if we removed the vig from -550 and +450, we’d see that the fair odds are actually -466 and +466. So, placing a wager at odds of -490 doesn’t actually offer any value.

For reasons hinted at, when shopping odds for what’s expected to be a lopsided game, you need to find significantly better odds on the favorite’s moneyline than on the underdog’s moneyline. This is the only way to make the bet +EV.

Value only exists when the odds are better than the fair price, or when you are confident that a wager has a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest. By simply knowing this information, you become more knowledgeable than most recreational bettors who bet moneylines without really knowing how they work.

Moneyline Bonus Strategy

When it comes to sports betting, sites usually offer one of these two bonuses: cash or free plays. When the bonus is cash, there’s no unique strategy outside of the usual sound handicapping required to gain an edge. When the bonus is free plays, however, some additional strategy comes into play.

Please read our article on sports betting bonuses and rewards for more information on how these work.

If you wager $100 cash on odds of +100, you are staking $100 cash to win $100 cash. Your total potential return is $200, which is your initial stake plus your winnings. If you wager $100 free play on +100, however, your total potential return is just the $100 winnings. Whether you win or lose, your free play is used up. Obviously, free play bonuses aren’t worth as much as cash bonuses, so that means it’s up to you to squeeze as much value out of them as possible.

One the best ways to do this is to hedge by using moneyline betting at multiple sites. Let’s use the previous example of the game between the Celtics and the Grizzlies to illustrate how this works.

At a site that offers a free play bonus, you’d bet $100 free play on the Grizzlies at +210. At another site, where you have a cash balance, you bet $150 cash on the Celtics at -240. If the Grizzlies won, you’d win $210 cash from your free play but lose your $150 cash. That’s a profit of $60. If the Celtics won, you’d win $62.51 from your cash bet and lose only your free play credit. That’s a profit of $62.51

Feel free to play around with exactly how much to bet per wager. We just wanted to show you that making a guaranteed profit is doable. Since it’s possible to claim bonuses at a number of different sites as a new customer, and since many sites offer a reload bonus, this strategy is repeatable. The most important thing to remember is this; only bet with reputable sites, like any of the ones we recommend.

Moneyline betting is an American term for the betting market match winner which is simply a wagering option for which team will win a match with no handicap involved. This is the most common way betting is done on baseball and hockey games and for basketball and football it is a popular alternative to point spread betting. In this article I will explain how the odds work, introduce the websites with the best odds and explain the dynamics of this form of wagering in great depth.

Understanding Moneyline Odds

First let me explain how the odds work. The odds can be expressed as either a positive or a negative. A positive moneyline is how much profit a winning bet will pay per $100 staked. A negative moneyline is how much a player needs to stake in order to win $100. +175 means risk $100 to win $175 profit and -183 means risk $183 to win $100 profit. To calculate for other bet amounts, just change the moneyline to a decimal and multiply for positive or divide for negative. Betting $60 on +175 is risk $60 to win ($60*1.75=) $105 and staking $60 on -183 is risk $60 to win ($60/1.83=) $32.79.

Betting Moneylines Online

First, understand bookmakers make their profit (vig) by shorting positive moneylines and inflating negative moneylines. A term to be familiar with is cents. Yankees -180 / Twins +160 is said to be a 20 cent line which is referring to gap between -180 and +160. Also if one site is offering -180 and another -176 one site is said to have a 4 cent better price. A dimeline means a 10 cent line (example: -150/+140) and a nickel line (rare) means a 5 cent line (example -120 / +115). Where you bet moneylines online makes a difference. Many sites charge a lot of vig using 20+ cent lines. The sites offering better value are listed below.

• Why We Like’em
• Has point spreads priced -105 (risk $1.05 to win $1, instead of $1.10 to win $1)
• Offers a 15-25% bonus on all deposits and is highly competitive with 5Dimes for baseball and hockey moneylines.
• Offers a 50% up to $250 sign-up bonus, baseball dimeline up to -144 (.15 to -175) and many off market NFL & NBA underdogs.

Understand the websites above are best on average because they build less juice into their lines than competitors Justbet, Topbet and Bookmaker do. It is still important to shop as many betting sites as possible including the three just mentioned in seeking the best price. Line shopping is the heart of moneyline betting strategy.

Understanding the Dynamics

There’s a huge mistake many novice sports bettors make on a regular basis. I’m going to explain the dynamics of moneyline betting multiple ways in the hope you’ll firmly grasp the concept and avoid making the same mistake.

Question 1: Game 1= Bears -110 / Falcons -110. Game 2= Patriots -450 / Jaguars +350. Which of these two lines has more vig? To novice players the obvious answer is the Bears/Falcons because it is a 20 cent line as opposed to a 100 cent line. This is answer is however incorrect. The second line has less juice (vig) than the first.

Question 2: All online betting sites are offering Patriots -450 / Jaguars +350. A friend says: “I’ll offer you either Patriots -380 or Jaguars +380, which would you like?” You are only concerned with having the maximum expected value. Which wager -380 or +380 has higher expected value? Many bettors would say if the line is -450 / +350 this averages to -400 / +400, therefore -380 is the better bet. This is again wrong. -450 / +350 when vig is removed is -368 / +368! If you’re thinking: what? wait? why? you are completely lost and lack understanding of the basics. It is a good thing you found this article as I’ll explain further.

Implied Probability Explained

Betting The Moneyline In Football Championship

Understand that all moneylines have an associated implied probability, which means how often they need to win to break even. The math for calculating this is risk/return=implied probability. Return refers to stake + win. So -110 is risk $110 to win $100 and the return is $210 ($110 stake + $100 win). The math here is 110/210=0.5238 (52.38%).

Do not skip this exercise: Visit our odds converter and under required break even percentage enter 52.38%. You’ll see this is American odds -110 as just explained. Increase this figure by 1% to 53.38% and you’ll see the American odds are -114.5. This is a 4.5 cent increase.

Continuing this exercise, enter 81.82% and you’ll see this is -450. Add 1% more to make it 82.82% and you’ll see this is a -482.1. That’s a 32.1 cents difference for 1%, but above 1% was only 4.5 cents.

The lesson here is that cents are near meaningless for evaluating odds. All that matters is implied probability.

Calculating odds, VIG and EV may look difficult at first, but do 1 or 2 examples and it’s a piece of cake

How to Remove Vig

Back to question #2: again, novice bettors often make the mistake of assuming -450/+350 has a -400/+400 fair value line, which is well off. The way to calculate this is -450 has an implied probability of 81.82% and +350 has an implied probability of 22.22%. Notice these total 104.04%. The reason they are higher than 100% is the bookmaker’s advantage (vig) which we’ve already discussed.

To remove vig: divide both implied probabilities by their combined total (in this case 104.04%). 81.82%/104.04%=78.64% 22.22%/104.04%=21.36%. Notice 78.64%+21.36%=100%. This means so long as vig was divided equally, the oddsmaker determined the favorite will win 78.64% of the time leaving 21.36% of the time for the underdog. Enter these into our odds converter and you’ll see 78.64% is -368.2 and 21.36% is +368.2 in American odds format.

Originally to come up with -450/+350 the bookmaker took his starting probabilities added about 4% vig. When doing this, he couldn’t simply add 2% to the favorite and remove 2% from the underdog; he needed to do this proportional to how often each side is going to win. This meant giving 78.64% of the 4% to the favorite and taking the remainder from the underdog. Next he made some slight adjustments/rounding to get a nicer looking number, giving him -450/+350.

Calculating EV

The equation for calculating EV is (win probability * what you’ll be paid if you win) – (loss probability * amount staked)=EV. Using the same odds we’ve been discussing let me calculate the EV for each.

$100 at -450 pays ($100/4.5=) $22.22 and we know our chances of winning is the 78.64% we calculated earlier. This plugs in as (0.7864*$22.22)-(0.2136*$100)=-$3.88. As we expect to lose $3.88 per $100 stake we have a -3.88% expected return on investment (ROI). The bookmaker on average profits 3.88% of our staked amount.

$100 at +350 pays ($100*3.5=) $350 and we know our chances of winning are 21.36%. This plugs in as (0.2136*$350)-(0.7864*$100)=-3.88. Again we have same -3.88% ROI and again the bookmaker on average profits 3.88% of our staked amount.

Re-Answering Questions 1 & 2

Betting The Moneyline In Football

When betting point spreads that are 50/50 propositions $100 at -110 pays $90.91. This plugs in as (0.5*90.91)-(0.50*$100)=-4.55. This here is a -4.55% ROI. As you can see, the bookmaker makes more on -110/-110 than -450/+350. Likewise, we pay less vig betting either option on a -450/+350 line than we do on either option of a -110/-110 line.

What Does The Moneyline Mean In Football Betting

Do you understand now why -110/-110 has move vig than -450/+350. It is really as simple as noting 1% of a big number is far more than 1% of a small number. If you did the exercise with our odds converter earlier you are already aware of how this works. There is an important lesson to take from this involving shopping large moneylines at multiple betting sites. When dealing with the favorite you need to find MUCH better price than the consensus moneyline to find a +EV bet. When dealing the underdog you need to find only a small amount better. Again for -450/+350 the no-vig lines are about -368/+368, not the -400/+400 novice bettors often believe that they are.